The Climate Grid: Mission and Results

Our group chose to be involved in the Climateprediction.net grid-computing project, which analyzed data from previous years around various parts of the globe to determine patterns helpful in predicting weather and climate more accurately. Over the course of this semester our grid completed three different tasks:

     Using Climate over Northern Africa to Predict Climate in the Pacific Northwest
               Total Time 7 days, 14 hours, 8 minutes, and 15 seconds
               Credit Earned 3,672

     Using Climate over Southern Africa to Predict Climate in the Pacific Northwest
               Total Time 7 days, 1 hour, 41 minutes, and 3 seconds
               Credit Earned 3,411
     Using Climate over the Mediterranean to Predict Climate in the Atlantic Northeast
               Total Time 11 days, 9 hours, 52 minutes, and 37 seconds
               Credit Earned 3,963

     The grid is currently using data from the previous three tasks to predict climate over the Great Plains, and has been doing so for the last 12 days. A "credit" in grid-computing is a unit that a computer can earn. Credits can be thought of as the percentage of completion of a total task, or an amount contributed and recognized to the task. The main purpose of this grid is to use climate data from as far back as possible from all over the world to help predict patterns that are to be expected in certain areas. With more accurate predictions more preparations can be made during upcoming droughts, hurricane/monsoon seasons, and periods of excessive heat or bitter cold. Moreover, the task will run simulations thousands of times with slightly different parameters, in hopes of finding out how sensitive individual models are to small disturbances, as well as to changes in carbon dioxide and sulphates in the atmosphere. Small tweaks are slight enough to not make the approximations any less realistic, and they allow us to explore how climate may change in the next century under a wide range of different scenarios (Climate prediction.net). These models must include everything down to clouds to try and increase accuracy and reduce the uncertainty of climate and weather prediction.

     The future of this grid is uncertain, as we do not find out about future tasks; however, our computer will stay involved to help further the climate prediction grid. However, it might be expected that our computer will be involved in the HYDRA project, which is focusing on hydrological changes expected of global warming, the RAPID-CHAAOS project, which is to find a set of model versions that can shadow recent surface and subsurface ocean changes (Climateprediction.net), or the RAPID-RAPIT project which aims to assess the risk of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) collapse in the coming century (Climateprediction.net).


      If there has been one word to define our experience with grid computing, it would be "simplicity". Grid computing is an incredibly simple yet effective way to take part in an active study on almost any subject imaginable. Over the course of the past few months we feel that our participation in this project has enhanced the climate change research taking place today. Likewise, our interview with an expert really opened our eyes to the connection between climate change and evolution. Climate change can have dramatic effects on almost everything, even down to the lowest organisms, so the more knowledge we can gain on this subject, the more prepared we can be to face these changes. Through the help of active participation and simple grid computing, this project has become a great learning experience, one that we feel fortunate to have contributed to.

Answers to Professor Walker's Questions

Questions

Questions 1-5 are based off the PLOS One paper entitled "Early Human Speciation, Brain Expansion and Dispersal Influenced by African Climate Pulses" by Shultz and Maslin (2013). 

1. Explain the pulsed climate variability hypothesis in your own words. Why do the authors feel that this hypothesis offers a more accurate account of hominin evolution than others?

     The pulsed climate variability hypothesis is one of four explanations currently being debated as to what caused the drastic increase in hominin diversity, migration, and increase in brain size 1.8-1.9 Ma. It describes areas of East Africa that fluctuated rapidly between extreme wet-dry conditions. More specifically, it is signified by the East African Rift System (EARS) spanning a distance of 4500 km and the rapid flooding and drought that led to changes in vegetation from trees and shrubs to tropical grasses. Other hypotheses include the savannah hypothesis, which would lead to increased aridity and increased savannah grassland; variability selection hypothesis, in which environmental instability led to further hominin development; and finally the turnover pulse hypothesis, where minor environmental changes lead to differentiation in speciation and adaptation. While the author does recognize the pulse hypothesis as the closest of the three, the evidence of the pulsed climate variability far outweighs the findings on the turnover pulse hypothesis. Such findings show that lake basins (especially in EARS regions) were extremely prevalent, there were shifts in vegetation, and an increase in the temperatures of the Pacific and Indian Oceans would have caused more moisture in the tropics. While the pulsed climate variability hypothesis provides solid research findings, the authors concluded that it should be viewed as a starting point for the explanation of hominin development during this time period. While the climate and environment would have played a vital role in the species development, it may be too simplistic at this point to encompass all the environmental forces during this time.

2. What happened in the subfamily Homininae 1.9-1.8 Mybp? Why is this so important in our evolutionary history?

     During the period 1.9-1.8 Ma, hominin diversity and development exploded. The period is characterized by increases in species diversity, migration out of East African and into Eurasia, and increases in brain size. This time in our evolutionary history was extremely important because it has allowed us to evolve to where we are today. The changes in the diversity of hominins led to the first Homo erectus, thus allowing us to become bipedal walkers. The migration out of East Africa and into Eurasia helped increase diversity by subjecting populations to different environmental factors that would lead to further speciation and adaptation. And finally, the increase in our brain size and development allowed hominins time, something they had never had before. With an increase in brain size, they were able to focus on "technologically advanced" ways of hunting, such as throwing stones at animals. This would have allowed them to be more efficient hunters, consequently allowing them to obtain the nutrition needed to further their development.

3. If changes as seemingly minor as lake presence and dust deposition can have these dramatic implications, what might you predict will happen as a result of current anthropogenic climate change?


If minor changes like lake presence and dust deposition were able to create dramatic events such as hominin speciation and dispersal events, then it can be postulated that the current anthropogenic climate change can have dramatic implications as well. Some areas of the world may receive increased rainfall which could lead to increased productivity, while still more may receive less rainfall, resulting in decreased productivity and shifts in habitat availability. Likewise, with the rate at which the anthropogenic climate change is occurring, some rural areas could see dispersal events as the result of flooding or dried-up river basins. Over time, it is possible that these events could create dramatic changes that lead to speciation, just like that of the African climate pulses.

4. Apply Darwin's postulates to the adaptation of hominins to climate change.

     Charles Darwin's postulates are: 1) Individuals within a species are variable; 2) Some of these variations are passed on to the offspring; 3) In every generation, more offspring are produced than can survive; 4) The survival and reproduction of individuals is not random, natural selection operates on populations; and (although not included in the text, Darwin also included) 5) Through the accumulation of different adaptations, different groups would become species. The first postulate says that there needs to be variation within a species which can be seen in the differences in brain size in hominins. According to the second postulate, these variations need to be able to be passed on to offspring, which we have seen in an 80% increase in brain size during this period. Thirdly, there needs to be more offspring produced in a generation than are able to survive. This postulate is slightly more difficult to track due to the lack of evidence in the area, but can be inferred that populations were migrating to Eurasia due to a low quality of life in which many of their offspring would not have been healthy enough to survive birth. Darwin's fourth postulate says that natural selection occurs on populations which can be seen from various angles. The climate was posing environmental stress on hominins during this time period and the EARS lake system required frequent fluctuation. As a result, geographically isolated populations evolved independently of one another. And finally, the fifth postulate states that through the accumulation of different adaptations, new species would result. This can be seen during this time period, one in which the species were more diverse than they ever have been.

5. What is an adaptive radiation? What evolutionary processes do the authors believe are responsible for the described adaptive radiation in hominins?

     According to the Berkeley Evolution website, adaptive radiation is described as an event that causes species to rapidly diversify. This diversification can be caused by a wide range of factors and can result in the formation of new lineages. The authors believe that adaptive radiation could have been caused by one or more of three possible hypotheses. The first idea proposed is that the hominins were located in areas that were spatially constrained due to geographic isolation that would have resulted in population isolation and vicariance. Some specific examples of this first hypothesis are noted in the paper being the East African Rift System (a series of lakes that experienced vast extremes from flooding to drought) as well as mountain and volcanic ranges (such as Barrier Volcano, Namaruno volcano, e.g.). The second hypothesis proposed suggests that the hominins were occupying novel niches that were highly productive in aiding development. The East African Rift System (EARS) lakes in these areas were able to provide large deep fresh water lakes that would have allowed these hominins a specific niche to reside with ample water and food supplies. Finally, the last hypothesis mentioned in the paper was that the instability and drying of the EARS lakes could have led to periods of environmental stress resulting in strong selective pressures against the populations.

 
     Shultz, Susanne, and Mark Maslin. "Early Human Speciation, Brain Expansion and Dispersal Influenced by African Climate Pulses. "PLOS ONE:. Faculty of Life Sciences, 16 Oct. 2013. Web. 03 Apr. 2014
      "Triggering Adaptive Radiation." Evolution 101: The Big Issues. Berkeley, n.d. Web. 03 Apr. 2014.

Our Interview with an Expert, Dr. Mary Haskins

On February 11^th, 2014 our group had the opportunity of speaking with a professional in the field of climate change and prediction, Dr. Mary Haskins, Ph.D. Dr. Haskins graduated with her B.S.E. as well as her M.S. degree, both in Biology, from Truman State University, and she obtained her Ph.D. from the University of Missouri-Columbia. Dr. Haskins has traveled the world to destinations such as Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Cameroon Africa, Canada, Belize, Norway, Sweden, and 44 of the United States (to name a few). An interesting fact about Dr. Haskins is that she has taken two classes on parasites from the Centers for Disease Control (one in Mexico, and the other in their headquarters in Atlanta, GA) and she also volunteers her time working with a local dog rescue organization.  

Before our group began conducting the specifics of our interview we outlined precisely what the purpose of running a grid aims to achieve. Dr. Haskins mentioned that although she had previously heard of grid computing, she had no personal experience with it. Interested in the overall potential of our project, Dr. Haskins grew eager to offer her assistance.

As we launched the interview we asked Dr. Haskins what experience she had in climate predication and change to this point in her career. She responded, “I usually teach it in Ecology,” elaborating that she often addresses climate change in her other courses including Environmental Science as well as in multiple graduate courses offered over the summer months to teachers. Dr. Haskins also added a short personal story in which she observed a touch of what climate change is capable of doing. She told us that in the summer of 2010 she traveled to Cameroon, Africa for a family wedding. During her trip she observed the architecture of one of the hotels in which she visited, noting that one of the pools constructed by the hotel owners was completely under water. “As the ocean level went up it overran the pool,” stated Dr. Haskins, forcing them to build a second pool.  Unfortunately, for an unknown reason, the second pool was constructed neighboring the first pool. “Not very far in the distant future the pool they just built is going to be overrun with saltwater,” Dr. Haskins thought to herself. “It’s interesting to me, I think a lot of people in the United States don’t believe in climate change. If you go to a developing country I think a majority of the people buy into it, because they’re living it.” Dr. Haskins further stated, “in the United States you get to cushion yourself with a furnace in the winter, air conditioning in the summer, and air conditioning in your car. Most people aren’t that connected to the land.” A great point Dr. Haskins included was “if you don’t live it on a day-to-day basis, then you aren’t seeing it in the same way.”

In recent years, Dr. Haskins has noticed that the preferred vernacular has changed from global warming to climate change. This is accurate, she stated, because “warming is driving the change.” It is important not to confuse weather and climate. “Climate is the big picture, you really have to have decades or centuries of data to record that. What we all experience is weather.” We caught her off-guard when we asked if she had any knowledge of any interesting or surprising accounts of previous climate prediction. After a short pause Dr. Haskins stated “I do have a good friend of mine who was a member of the IPCC,” or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an organization that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for their efforts on building a greater knowledge of man-made climate change. Aside from that, Dr. Haskins could not think of anything else to add.

We asked Dr. Haskins why she felt society (generally speaking) doesn't buy in to the principle of climate change. She went on to say that she believes “people don’t want to think about the real implications,” and if people can’t see that it is directly affecting them their mindset is “why should I worry about it?” She added, “farmers, on the other hand, have to pay attention because they are driven by precipitation and temperatures. They’re living it.”

Our interview then began to focus on evolution. When asked why a student studying climate change should know about its influence on evolution and evolutionary trends, Dr. Haskins responded by stating, “if animals have adapted to one way of life, and then the climate changes, they will have to evolve or else die off.” A different reason why we should study its influence on evolution is that “we get lots of ideas and sort of reverse engineer ideas we learn from animals” we observe in our environment. Another reason why we should know about climate change is because “as things warm up you may see more organisms that are parasitic that are restricted to tropical countries moving north,” Dr. Haskins stated. “We could see a real shift in the number of parasites and be dealing with medical issues we haven’t had to deal with before.”

In our closing question we asked Dr. Haskins if she knew of any misconceptions that exist about climate prediction and she responded by saying, “I think the biggest misconception is that if you look at the weather pattern you can figure out the climate, because people think that weather and climate are the same thing.” She added that she also believes there is a misconception that “we can control or fix whatever an issue is,” people do not realize we are “at the mercy of” nature.

Interviewing Dr. Haskins was highly insightful and it offered an in-depth examination of the incredible impact climate change possesses. Our group was surprised to learn that the vernacular has changed throughout recent years from global warming to climate change according to Dr. Haskins. Also, we found it very interesting that we could see a shift in the number of parasites plaguing the United States and a shift in our strategy to battle disease if a warming trend were to occur. A sincere “Thank You” goes out to Dr. Haskins for sharing her time and expertise with our group.

Description of Project

     The use of grid computing in today's data driven society has become one of the greatest resources for scientists and mathematician's alike. The ability to decipher large amounts of raw data gathered from millions of individual users computers has become an excellent way for scattered scientific research to be pieced together. This new process is allowing scientists to sort through data in a matter of months, something that would have taken many years to collect and interpret in the past. According to the World Community Grid, it has already led to many new drug treatments, such as 44 different treatments for the smallpox disease. While new grids are being created at an increasing rate, we have chosen a well-established grid concerned with the current findings of the changing climate (climateprediction.net) and will be basing our study off of the results that the grid produces. 
       
     Climate change has become a major topic of discussion not only in the realm of science, but politics as well. There are a number of indicators that are associated with changes in the climate. Some of these indicators include carbon dioxide concentration, global temperature, Arctic Sea ice, land ice, and sea level (NASA). For instance, carbon dioxide levels are rapidly increasing along with global temperature. While at the same time, Arctic Sea ice and land ice are shrinking by the year which has caused sea levels to rise. These changes are thought to be a result of increased human activity since the Industrial Revolution. Large amounts of carbon dioxide are released into the air producing what is known as the “greenhouse effect”. According to NASA, the greenhouse effect is "warming that results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from earth toward space". Shifts in the global indicators cause major changes in the climate.


Picture #1: Rising Global Temperatures

     Climate change produces a number of effects, some positive but most negative. It affects regions differently, but a continued rise in global temperatures is expected (NASA). Changing weather patterns can have an impact on agriculture. Future impacts are expected to become even worse. Consequently, "Many places have seen changes in rainfall, resulting in more floods, droughts, or intense rain, as well as more frequent and severe heat waves" (EPA). However, climate change has sparked a large increase in awareness and steps are being made to lower the rate of change. Research about changes in climate have exploded over recent years and more answers and alternatives are continuously being brought to the table. Our grid hopes to provide more of these answers and alternatives and hopefully become a stepping stone in the climate change solution. 

 Picture #2: Visualization of the 2007 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum


http://www.worldcommunitygrid.org

http://climate.nasa.gov/index

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/index.html

http://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/understanding-climate-change-global-warming

Picture #1 & #2: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence